Friday, March 9, 2012

GDP and Trend 1995-2006

Here is nominal GDP and trend from 1995 to 2006. Excessive nominal GDP growth started in 1996. The peak distance from trend was in 2000. Nominal GDP only returned to trend in 2006. The supposedly excessive growth in nominal GDP is pretty clear from the diagram. It was in 2003.

Here is GDP from 1984 until 2011, with the trend from 84 to 2008. The growth rate of that trend is 5.4%. As can be seen, the close up above shows both the upward deviation in the late nineties (the boom) and the recession that followed. Of course, the current disaster is clear as well.


  1. From a great enough distance, even the surface of the Earth looks as smooth as glass.

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