Sunday, September 30, 2012

Output and Employment? What Puzzle?

Nominal GDP passed it previous 2008 peak long ago.   It is nearly 8 percent above that peak.   Real GDP has also passed its 2008 peak, having risen nearly 2 percent!   On the other hand, employment has not reached its previous peak.   It is still 2.76 percent below that peak.

The "problem" is that productivity has increased.   The recovery in output has been generated without there being a matching increase in employment.


During the Great Moderation, real GDP increased by 110 percent and employment only increased 37 percent.      Thank goodness that real GDP rose more than employment, resulting in real GDP per worker rising 53 percent.

Real GDP is 13 percent below trend and employment is 9 percent below trend.   For both to return to trend, real GDP would need to grow more than employment.   In fact, real GDP would need to grow nearly 18 percent and employment about 11 percent.

1 comment:

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